My wallet isn’t too happy after the week one picks; there were a lot of crazy scenarios that resulted in losses. The only bet that won is the Pistons covering the spread — too bad I dropped that bet when I saw Blake Griffin was not playing. Toronto’s team under did not hit because the game went into overtime — that’s tough. Sacramento did not cover the spread, Phoenix has been firing on all cylinders. Half of the parlay of the week hit with the Magic doing their part, but the Bulls blew a 10-point lead with three minutes left in the game and did not cover the spread.
Hopefully these were just some week one anomalies. We are currently 0-3 and down $300.
Let’s get our money back.
Like always, all lines pulled from https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/basketball/nba.
Bet #1: The Chicago money line over New York at -119 odds: To start, the Bulls are a significantly better team. They have not quite figured everything out yet, but they are still significantly better. I also like how they matchup. Thad Young and Otto Porter should be able to handle the Knicks’ plethora of power forwards. The Knicks also do not have a quality defensive option to put on Zach Lavine or Lauri Markkanen. Lastly, the Knicks shot the lights out against the Nets in their last game, I am expecting a regression to the mean.
Bet #2: Philadelphia to cover the spread in Atlanta at -105 odds. Trae Young is currently leading the league in scoring, but I am predicting his hot-streak comes to an end tonight. He will be facing elite perimeter defenders who have a significant size advantage on him, coupled with elite interior defense as well. The lack of a second creator will kill the Hawks tonight and so much pressure will be on Young. Like the last prediction, I am also factoring in regression to the mean in this prediction; the Hawks have over-performed in a lot of areas, so I’m predicting that going against an elite team like Philly will result in the Hawks coming back down to reality. I think this will be a blowout win for Philly.
Bet#3: Utah to cover the spread in Phoenix at -110 odds. Despite the Suns hot start, the Jazz are a significantly better team. The Jazz are also coming off a bad loss and they have had a couple days to prepare for this game. They don’t necessary have a great option to put on Devin Booker, but the Suns don’t matchup with Jazz that well either. Whoever Booker has to guard will be able to run spread pick and roll with Rudy Gobert all day. Aron Baynes is a good defender, but he plays way under the rim, Gobert is the best vertical spacer in the league. I’m going with the more disciplined/way-better team to bounce back against and slow the Sun’s roll a little bit.
Bet#4: The under point total for Portland at San Antonio at -115 odds. I like this under because I think the line-makers were fooled by the Spurs average points per game through this point of the season. They are averaging 122 points per game. That number is that high because of the teams they’ve played. They have played the Knicks and the Wizards, two of the worst defenses in the league. The Blazers average 114.3 points per game right now. They have faced some decent teams, but none that has the defenders that matchup as perfectly as the Spurs’ defenders do. Dejounte Murray and Derrick White are both elite guard defenders. With those two guarding Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, I think this game will slow down a lot. Even if it does not slow down, there is the chance that the Spurs defense shuts Portland down. This is one where I just think there are more scenarios where the total finishes under 222 than over.
Parlay of the week: Chicago money line, Philadelphia to cover the spread, and Utah money line, putting the final payout at $548.41. The parlay of the week is simple here, I really like my first three picks. I changed the Utah pick to the money line, so we don’t have to worry about them winning by 5 — this is just for a little bit more security. I very much expect this to hit.