We are experiencing a little bit of a cold stretch, but that’s okay, it’s a long season. After going 2-3 last week we are now 17-23-1 and down $720.94. I’m expecting big wins today, I think the odds makers really messed up on some of these lines, easy money all over the board.
Like always, all lines pulled from https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/basketball/nba
Bet #1: Over 232.5 points in the New Orleans at Dallas game for -110 odds. Luka Doncic has led the Mavericks to the best offense in the league this year. The Pelicans play at a break-neck speed. There will be a lot of points scored in this game and I would not be surprised if this game sees both teams scoring at least 130.
Bet #2: Indiana to cover the spread (-5.5) in New York for -108 odds. This is a bizarre line to me, the Knicks are terrible and the Pacers are very solid. The Pacers are not the type of team to lose to bad teams as well. I expect them to blow the Knicks out.
Bet #3: The over in the Indiana New York (207.5) game for -115 odds. Like mentioned earlier, the Knicks are terrible, I think the Pacers could easily put up around 115 points tonight. It is also pretty reasonable to expect the Knicks to get around 95-100 points; I think this is a pretty safe bet.
Bet #4: Philadelphia to cover the spread (-12) against Cleveland for -109 odds. The Sixers have insane size and I expect them to hold the Cavaliers SexLand combo in-check. These games have also been way too close between the two this season, and considering that is not the likely outcome, the Sixers are due to blow them out.
Bet #5: Phoenix to cover the spread (+10.5) in Houston for -112 odds. The Suns are too good of a team to be projected to lose by 11 points. The Rockets are also very prone to blowing leads and letting teams get back into games. I would predict the Rockets to handle business, but I would not expect them to completely blow the Suns out.
Bet #6: The under (240.5) in the Phoenix Houston game for -105 odds. The Rockets have been slowly dropping pace the last few games due to teams trapping James Harden so frequently; this causes possessions to take longer due to the extra ball and player movement. The Suns play fast, but they are only around tenth in the league in pace. I think this game will move slower than the odds makers are expecting and the teams will finish around 230 total points.
Parlay of the week: The over in New Orleans/Dallas, Indiana money line, Phoenix to cover, and the under in Phoenix/Houston, resulting in a final pay out of $1019.08. This parlay is simple like usual, the analysis points clearly to the over and the under predicted here, Phoenix should not lose by more than 11 points, and we switched Indiana to the money line for a little more security.