It’s been six weeks since I last made picks. I’ve been keeping up with all the trends and seeing which statistical anomalies have regressed to the mean and which might be the new normal. This is also the point in the year when there aren’t any more surprises; we know what everyone is now. With that being said, we are currently 22-33-1 and down $1,528.49. We would have gone 4-0 with the last round of picks had Houston not blown their huge lead to miss the cover against the Hawks; instead, we lost that bet and parlay and went 2-2 instead. No worries though – these picks are guaranteed to hit.
One more thing, we’re going double units today. I love this line so we’re substituting double-units for the parlay of the week.
Like always, all lines pulled from https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/basketball/nba
Bet #1: Milwaukee to cover the spread (-13) for -110 odds at Detroit. The Bucks are the best regular season team right now and the Pistons are probably the worst. The Pistons also have no one who will have a chance at stopping Giannis or Khris Middleton (who has been on absolute fire lately). This one will be a bloodbath.
Bet #2: Houston to cover the spread (-9.5) for -110 odds at Golden State. The Rockets have been a great post All-Star break team the last two years. They have all their health now, plus they added two players in the buyout market who will likely make them better. The Warriors got worse by swapping D’Angelo Russell for Andrew Wiggins. The Rockets are firing on all cylinders; Golden State does not have the players to guard the Rockets in their five-out system or the offensive talent to make them pay for being small. I expect Houston to win by a significant margin.
Bet #3: Philadelphia to cover the spread (-8.5) for -110 odds against Brooklyn. The Sixers have been up and down all year, but during their highs they have looked unstoppable. The Nets have been up and down as well, but with more lows. They will also be without Kyrie Irving. I expect Joel Embiid to feast in the paint. Jarrett Allen is a great shot-blocker, but he cannot handle Embiid’s strength. Also, Philly moving Al Horford to the bench has allowed the Simmons, Embiid, and 3 wing lineups to flourish. Philly should handle business tonight.